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Courtesy CTV News
Analysts propose more Canadian ties to Southeast Asia amid chill with India, China
CTV News, February 2, 2024
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, President and CEO, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
Reporter: Dylan Robertson via Canadian Press
Extract: At the December conference [hosted by the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy], the head of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada seemed to hint that having the Conservatives signal their intent to maintain the core planks of the Indo-Pacific strategy would help cement relations with countries across the Asia.
"If you were thinking about coming into government and you thought this was generally something you didn't want to torpedo, it sure would be good to send some positive signals to the rest of the world," said Jeff Nankivell, president of the think tank, which is largely funded by the federal government. "We'd really like to see foreign policy being debated more in domestic circles in Canada, because we finally got the attention of some interlocutors in some parts of the Indo-Pacific region. Now that they're paying attention, I think we need to put our best foot forward."
Former CSIS head says inquiry timeline makes dealing with foreign interference substantively ‘impossible’
Global News, January 29, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Host: Mercedes Stephenson
Extract: Vina Nadjibulla: Foreign interference is already a major issue in our bilateral relationship with China. As you know, a number of other countries have been able to have high-level dialogue, including our allies, the US, the UK, and many European countries with China. China is not extending the same opportunity to Canada because of foreign interference and how this is unfolding. So that is continuing to put a strain on that relationship. With respect to India, it's already a challenging relationship, and just the addition of India to the inquiry formally in the last couple of days has already created a backlash in Indian media. We're watching that very closely. Of course, the argument that India is making is that all of this is essentially for political reasons, that Prime Minister Trudeau is trying to deflect attention and blame and essentially is trying to smear India's reputation. So we'll have to manage this very carefully. But that should not deter us from pursuing the public inquiry and getting to the bottom of the facts of what, in fact, happened and how the government has responded. Because relations with certainly China, Russia, Iran, India, there's complexity in that, and we have to be able to engage in dialogue when we must, but also recognize that ultimately we have to protect our own national interest and our own people here at home.
B.C. businesses are exposed to China’s sputtering economy
Business in Vancouver, January 23, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Nelson Bennett
Extract: Nadjibulla noted that, when B.C. Premier David Eby went on an Asian trade mission last year, he gave China a skip. B.C. opened a new trade office in Taiwan and introduced a new Trade Diversification Strategy aimed at increasing trade options in Asia outside of Mainland China.
“I think we will see a decline (in exports to China), and I think for those businesses the game is diversifying and de-risking,” Nadjibulla said. “As far as new businesses who are starting to export, they will be encouraged to look at markets outside of China.”
CTV National News: Taiwan voters rebuke China
CTV News, January 13, 2024
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO
Reporter: Colton Praill
Extract: This year, Canada faces a new challenge as both Taiwan and China vie for inclusion in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, where Canada acts as chair.
Jeff Nankivell: “That's a tricky diplomatic task, and certainly, Taiwan trade officials have held out the hope that Canadian diplomats can exercise creativity.”
Canada, China foreign ministers pledge dialogue, will attempt more collaboration
The Canadian Press (syndicated), January 12, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Dylan Robertson
Extract: In an English translation of the Thursday readout by China’s foreign ministry published in state media, Wang is quoted as saying that both countries have important influence in the Asia-Pacific region. He claimed that the two countries don’t have conflicting interests or historical fights.
Nadjibulla said these are all positive signs China is open to improving relations with Canada, as China comes out of a difficult economic year and seeks better ties with multiple countries.
"It's good for Canada to be recognized as a country with influence in the region. It means that our Indo-Pacific strategy obviously is having some early impact, because that is precisely the intent," she said.
Yet she said Joly's statement doesn't change the trajectory of Canada's China policy, which includes pursuing closer economic ties with other Asian countries, given Canada's view that China is a disruptive global power.
Where is the U.S.-China rivalry headed?
CBC Power and Politics, January 10, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Host: David Cochrane
Extract: Vina Nadjibulla: What's important to note is that similar to other Western allies (i.e. the U.S., Australia, European allies), there is a desire on the part of Canada, and certainly our government, to have a functional dialogue with the Chinese side. And the last conversation that Minister Joly had with her counterpart was in April of 2022, so it's been quite a long time. And I think if there has, in fact, been a phone call, which I guess there was, it is a positive sign, and we do need to have functional dialogue. That doesn't mean that the relations are going to be normalized. That doesn't mean that all of a sudden, Canada would have a different “perception of China and its role in the world.” But we can have our differences.
This is a complex relationship, and we still need to engage in functional dialogue because we also have an important trade relationship with China. Let's not forget that notwithstanding diplomatic tensions in 2022, trade with China still increased, especially in certain sectors: the agri-food, commodities, and energy sector. But we do need to recognize that the overall direction of travel with respect to engagement with China, including on the economic front, is one of de-risking and diversification. De-risking to other economies in Southeast Asia and diversifying our supply chains. So I think, overall, it's good that there are high-level contacts, but let's be realistic in terms of the scope for improvement in the relationship.
Will Canada's relationship with India improve in 2024?
CBC Power and Politics, January 9, 2024
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO
Host: David Cochrane
Extract: David Cochrane: But Jeff, it speaks to just how important India is that they're kind of willing to almost accept that this assassination happened and [try] to maintain diplomatic relations, maintain trade relations, maintain the security relations because of the challenges presented by China.
Jeff Nankivell: Well, it's the challenges presented by China. It's also the fact that India is the fastest growing large economy in the world and steadily moving up into the ranks of the top five economies in the world, and one in comparison with China, one with a much better demographic profile of its population. India has a much younger population and a much larger working age. So, as Roland mentioned, it's a difficult place to do business. That's been the situation for decades, but the opportunities are clearly there. Canada, I think, will continue to see the relationship primarily through an economic lens and a people-to-people lens for the simple fact that we are not a major strategic player in the Indian Ocean or in South Asia in the way that the United States is. So I think it needs to be seen not only as something in contrast to China or in light of China in Asia. India is a major player in its own right. And what Canada does in other parts of Asia, including a major push these days to expand Canadian engagement in Southeast Asia, needs to take India's role in growing economic and political weight into account.
As Canada seeks to define its place in the world, the fight for global influence has never been hotter
The Globe and Mail, January 8, 2024
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: James Griffiths
Extract: “Historically Canada has played an outsized role in the shaping of the international rules-based order,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “We have been a staunch defender of multilateralism and international law and the United Nations, it was kind of a Canadian trademark. But it’s fair to say that in the last 20 years, that image has been in decline.”
Any increase in staffing will come at a major cost, however. Overseas diplomats are among the most expensive civil servants to the taxpayer, and justifying such spending during a time of economic uncertainty can be difficult, particularly when Canadians tell pollsters time and again that they don’t care about foreign policy, something Ms. Nadjibulla said was more about a misunderstanding of the benefits of diplomatic work than any actual antipathy toward it.
“Leadership plays a role, in having a real conversation with Canadians about the importance of our presence in the world,” she said, adding that recent diplomatic crises involving China and India “should bring home the point that diplomacy matters.”
“Issues around foreign interference, cybersecurity, transnational repression, these are things that are now hitting us here in Canada,” Ms. Nadjibulla added. Addressing them requires Canada “to be fully engaged with the world.”
Biden won't visit India next month for parade and Quad: U.S. official
Nikkei Asia, December 14, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Ken Moriyasu
Extract: Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said that the U.S. response to the incident shows how much Washington has been careful in handling relations with India, as a key partner to counter China.
"When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sept. 18 made a very public and very visible statement [on the assassination in Canada] in parliament, the U.S. came with supportive statements, but only spoke about the Canada case," Nadjibulla said.
"At no point did U.S. officials from the White House or National Security Council or anywhere mention that they actually had an ongoing American case. Now that we know the timeline, the incident in the U.S. happened before the actual killing in Canada," she said.
Taiwan-Canada ties surge as supporters tout trade, politics and shared values
Canadian Press (syndicated), December 9, 2023
Featuring: Hugh Stephens, APF Canada Distinguished Fellow
Reporter: Chuck Chiang
Extract:
Stephens said it’s likely the Canada-Taiwan equation will always involve calculations about China, and ties between Ottawa and Beijing won’t always be so chilly. Relations were driven down by the arrest of Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver in 2018 and Beijing’s subsequent arrests of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
However, Stephens said there was “no going back” on the new wave of engagement with Taiwan — as long at it stays within the flexible ambiguity of the One China Policy.
“It’s filling up the vacant policy space at a time when it’s perhaps a little bit easier to do because of the coolness of Canada-China relations,” he said.
“Once that policy space has been filled up and Canada-China relations resume their pace, I don’t see a rolling back. It has to be a new accommodation to those realities.”
New CPTPP chair Canada should seek to engage Taiwan: ex-officials
Nikkei Asia, December 7, 2023
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO; Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Ken Moriyasu
Extract:
"One area that Canada can really make a contribution is to develop some innovative and creative ideas about Taiwan and the CPTPP," said Jeff Nankivell, Canada's former consul general in Hong Kong and Macao and currently the president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
"There is space. We should not feel bound," he said at the Tuesday gathering.
"It's not a question of 'accession yes' or 'accession no,' or accession at this time or accession at a later time, but let's think creatively about ways to have a gradual increase in engagement that could help integrate Taiwan's economy and its people into the CPTPP," he said.
"How often do we get opportunities for new, creative, 'Made in Canada' diplomatic ideas?"
Nankivell told Nikkei Asia that inviting Taiwan to CPTPP working groups could be one idea.
Whether Canada will be able to muscle through such logic against China is questionable. Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, told Nikkei that Canada is the second-largest economy of the original 11 members of the CPTPP and has clout. "CPTPP accession should be based on merit and not geopolitics," she said.
Asia Pacific - Canada’s opportunities and challenges in the region
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO
Conversations Live with Stuart McNish, December 5, 2023
Host: Stuart McNish
Extract:
Jeff Nankivell: In terms of moving forward and in terms of the growth story in Asia, I think there's an important thing to understand about the nature of the growth in Asia. A percentage point of growth in an Asian economy these days offers different market opportunities than a percentage point of growth in the US economy or Western European economy, or even for the more mature developed economies like Japan and Korea. With emerging economies, each percentage point of growth in these countries, like in Southeast Asia and South Asia, that have very favourable demographics, they've got lots of new young people coming into the labour force each year. But they also know every time economic growth ticks up, you have millions of households who are crossing income thresholds each year, which means their consumption habits are changing. They're starting to buy different types of goods and services. They are able to afford education abroad for their young people. They are interested in consumer products in which Canada excels in areas like nutritional supplements and very high-quality packaged foods of different kinds and higher quality ingredients. And these are consumers whose tastes are still developing, and they haven't been shaped by a century of advertising and brand loyalty. It is very hard to claw market share away from established players in consumer markets in places like Western Europe, the US, and even Canada. But there's an opportunity in the fact that these economies are transforming, and you have millions of people joining the middle class and moving up through the ranks of the middle class, and that offers growth opportunities for higher and higher value products from Canada.
The Global Exchange Podcast (Canadian Global Affairs Institute), December 4, 2023
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO
Host: Colin Robertson
Extract:
Jeff Nankivell: On the terms of the IPS, I guess you could say the government has achieved some of what it set out to achieve a year ago in publishing the IPS with regard to China, which was to reposition itself vis a vis China, with a message about China as a disruptive global power. A message that implied efforts on, though the word containment is not used, the need to rise to the challenge of China.
The government in the IPS didn't really articulate much of an agenda for other forms of engagement with China except to say that on global issues, Canada would need to work with China. As we've seen over the past year, the diplomatic relationship and the high-level dialogues remain pretty much frozen apart from the visit of the Environment Minister, Mr. Guilbeault, at the end of August to an Environment Council meeting in China. That's a body that's been going for 30 years, that Canada has always been a part of, that has other international players. But I think in terms of the objective to reassure Washington with a public statement of where the government stands vis a vis the challenge posed by China as a disruptive power in the world, I would say has been achieved. It's a modest one in terms of effort. In terms of other forms of engagement with China, there's not much progress, but there wasn't much ambition in the IPS
Naver CEO, Canadian envoy discuss women in the workplace
Korea Joongang Daily, November 30, 2023
Reporter: Esther Chung
Extract:
Glass ceilings are a reality for many working women, said a group of top female entrepreneurs, diplomats and academics from Canada and Korea in Seoul on Thursday.
“My own experiences of trying to be both a woman and a successful professional drive my philosophy as a CEO,” said Choi Soo-yeon, CEO of Naver, in speaking with Canadian Ambassador to Korea Tamara Mawhinney before an audience of entrepreneurs and academics at Ewha Womans University on Thursday. Representatives of over 30 Canadian companies traveled to Korea and Thailand this week for a women-only business mission to discuss innovation and inclusivity.
Further exchanges between the two countries, especially between young people, is a way to move forward as both Canada and Korea grapple with similar demographic issues.
“There is a lot of interest for young Canadians to come and work and study here,” said Mawhinney, citing recent agreements between Korea and Canada to expand their work-and-study programs. “How citizens of the world can come to Korea and feel at home here, and what they can contribute, is one of those interesting debates, and it’s certainly one that is an essential part of the Canadian perspective on the world.”
Diplomatic rift between Canada, U.S. & India
CTV News, November 29, 2023
Featuring: Jeff Nankivell, APF Canada President & CEO
Host: Angie Seth
Extract:
Angie Seth: What's your reaction, first of all, to the charge of Nikhil Gupta in the attempted assassination of a Khalistani separatist leader?
Jeff Nankivell: Well, it certainly tells us a lot of detail that was not public. And it's quite striking in the extent to which the detail has been provided by the unsealing of the American indictment. And it does create a very new dimension, international dimension to what had been a Canada-India story by the insertion of the United States into the conversation in quite a dramatic fashion.
Angie: With that link now based on the US investigation linking Gupta, connecting him to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, does it solidify Canada's allegations of India's involvement?
Jeff Nankivell: Well, I think the specifics of that remain to be seen, but it certainly helps to give context for the world. It helps to give context for the allegations made by Prime Minister Trudeau in September and answer some of the questions that had been asked about that. But I think we'll have to see how the criminal investigation in Canada unfolds before we'll know more about the specific linkages. But it is certainly a very dramatic development.
How geopolitics caught up with Canada
Financial Times, November 25, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Demetri Stevastopulo
Extract:
“The Indo-Pacific strategy had a clear message on China that has not changed. But our diplomacy — how we deal with China and others — now has to take into account the need for pragmatism,” says Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Nadjibulla says that includes the need to stabilise relations with China and have a more constructive dialogue with the country, as the US and Australia have recently been doing.
Anthony Albanese recently became the first Australian prime minister to visit China in seven years, in a trip that eased tensions in what has been a frosty relationship, particularly since his predecessor called for an investigation into China and the Covid-19 pandemic. “
Australia has demonstrated how you can stabilise relations with China while not giving up on your principles and values,” Nadjibulla adds.
Is Biden-Xi meeting a reset of U.S.-China relations?
CBC News, November 16, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Host: David Cochrane
Extract:
David Cochrane: "Where does Canada fit into this deescalation between the US and China and the APEC summit more broadly?"
Vina Nadjibulla: "Well, at this point, Canada is the only G7 that doesn't have high level dialogue with China. We're still frozen out. We saw Australia reengage after their difficult relationship with China was sort of going on for almost five years as well. So for us, given our relationship with China and our relationship with India, a lot of attention is currently on ASEAN, which is also why we're seeing the bilateral meetings that Prime Minister Trudeau is having here within Indonesia with Thailand and others as well. And of course, all the trade missions that are going to go to ASEAN in the beginning of 2024. And there are also conversations with Australia, which I hope will be largely around how do we manage our relations with China. And hopefully some lessons that Canada can learn from how Australia has stabilized its relations with China while also being a really close ally of the US, taking part in AUKUS and the Quad, and all of the other mechanisms that are now being put in place in the Indo-Pacific to deal with China."
Full day of bilateral meetings at APEC Summit
CTV News, November 16, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Marcia MacMillan
Extract:
Marcia MacMillan: "Tensions are high between China and Canada. How do you see this affecting the summit for Canada and Canada's role there?"
Vina Nadjibulla: "Well, Canada is here really to establish that it is a Pacific nation in the same way that the US is hosting this summit, to basically remind everyone that the United States is a powerful Pacific nation. That is also Canada's message. Here we have an Indo Pacific strategy, a strategy that was launched last year. And, of course, now we're here to try to deepen relations with key partners in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines. Also, APEC involves Taiwan as an active economy, which is really a great opportunity for us to continue to strengthen economic, trade and cultural relations with Taiwan. And, of course, APEC represents 88% of our trade, which is a really important thing to remember as we focus on economic development issues, on affordability issues. Our prosperity, Canadian prosperity, is tied to this region, which is why it's really critical for us to be here in full force and to try to deepen partnerships and relations."
Biden, Xi meet face-to-face for 1st time in a year
CBC News, November 15, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Ashley Burke
Extract:
Vina Nadjibulla: "No one wants to see escalation of tensions in the South China Sea or East China Sea over the Taiwan issue."
Asia-Pacific leaders gather in San Francisco as tensions with China run high
CBC News, November 15, 2023
Featuring: Vina Nadjibulla, APF Canada Vice-President Research & Strategy
Reporter: Janyce McGregor
Extract:
"Everybody's hoping for some kind of a floor under this relationship, some kind of a detente and understanding," said Vina Nadjibulla, the vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. "No one wants to see escalation of tensions in the South China Sea or East China Sea over the Taiwan issue."
But if Biden's motives as summit host are too focused on containing China from a security perspective, that risks alienating other partners in the Indo-Pacific.
"The region is much more interested in economic collaboration and economic integration, trade investments," Nadjibulla said. "The big issue will really be, what does that U.S. commitment look like?"
