In the summer of 2024, Japan experienced a significant rice shortage, leaving store shelves empty and sending rice prices soaring, despite the country’s nearly 100 per cent rice self-sufficiency rate.
According to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the consumer price index for rice in September 2024 recorded a 48 per cent increase compared to the same time in 2023, marking the highest rise in 31 years. Even with the arrival of the new rice harvest in the fall, prices have remained elevated and, as of January 2025, are still showing no signs of stabilizing to previous levels. For a country where rice is not only a dietary staple but also an integral part of the culture, this crisis has disrupted daily life and raised critical questions about Japan’s agricultural policies and food security framework.
While factors such as global warming and increased demand from record-breaking tourism have been cited in media reports, these alone do not fully explain the shortage. Although record-high heat in 2023 and 2024 reduced the proportion of high-quality rice, the overall rice harvest in 2023 and 2024 was average. Similarly, while the influx of more than 30 million foreign tourists in 2024 increased demand for rice-based dishes, its impact on overall rice consumption remained marginal.
The root cause of the shortage and the crisis that ensued lies in the rigidity of Japan’s conservative rice policies, which prioritize protecting domestic farmers over ensuring supply chains flexibility. These protectionist policies and insular market practices have exacerbated the crisis, exposing a deeper dilemma in balancing producer protection with consumer access and reflecting a longstanding struggle with food self-sufficiency predating the 2024 rice shortage. Expert analyses, such as those by Yamashita Kazuhito from Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, emphasize the need for Japan to adopt adaptive reforms that enhance resilience in its agricultural framework. Lessons from Japan’s experience also highlight opportunities for countries like Canada to strengthen their food security frameworks in an evolving global landscape.
Economic and Food Security Challenges in Japan’s Rice Crisis
The economic impact of Japan’s summer 2024 rice shortage was evident across industries, particularly in the restaurant and hospitality sectors. Rising rice prices have led restaurants and food brands to increase prices for rice-based dishes and, in some cases, to even reduce portions, drawing criticism for passing higher costs onto consumers. As rice is an important part of Japanese people’s diet, with the average person consuming approximately 50.9 kilograms per year as of 2022— equivalent to about two bowls of rice daily — the sudden surge in prices has created financial strain, especially among low-income families.
As rice became increasingly expensive and scarce throughout the summer of 2024, many consumers turned to alternative grains and foodstuffs, particularly wheat-based products such as bread and noodles. This broader trend predating the 2024 rice shortage is especially evident in urban areas, where imported grains like wheat are increasingly used in cooking. It highlights a deeper concern about food security, as Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate on a caloric basis remains low, at 38 per cent for 2023, just above the record low of 37 per cent in 2021. In comparison, Canada is one of the most self-sufficient countries in the world when it comes to food, producing 204 per cent of its consumption. As the world’s second-largest importer of agricultural produce, Japan’s heavy reliance on food imports for wheat and soy — 80 per cent and 90 per cent of which are, respectively, imported — has grown more precarious due to price increases driven by disruptions from major producers such as Russia and Ukraine. This further highlights the vulnerability of Japan’s food supply, even as the country strives to raise its food self-sufficiency to 45 per cent by 2030.
Japan’s Conservative Rice Policy and Market Practices
Japan’s government has long prioritized the protection of domestic rice producers over consumers, a policy rooted in post-war efforts to ensure food security and preserve rural livelihoods. This approach is reinforced by the political influence of rural communities, who hold disproportionate power in Japan’s electoral system. Economically, subsidies provided to rice farmers and price controls provide a critical safety net for small-scale farmers, making them heavily reliant on government support, a practice not conducive to market liberalization. High import tariffs on rice — reaching as high as 778 per cent — were implemented in the late 1990s to shield domestic farmers from foreign competition. These protectionist measures remain largely intact today, despite significant shifts in Japan’s agricultural and economic landscape.
Unlike major rice exporters that have ramped up rice production, Japan has deliberately restricted rice output through its acreage reduction policies to prevent oversupply and stabilize prices, keeping its rice production almost unchanged for 60 years. This approach, while aimed at protecting domestic farmers, has contributed to higher consumer costs and limited the sector’s capacity to respond to supply crises like the 2024 shortage.
In fact, with a declining per capita rice consumption, driven by aging demographics and changing dietary habits, income-support subsidies are provided to encourage farmers to transition paddies to other crops. The recent rice shortage and rising prices have increased farmers’ interest in cultivating rice, but MAFF has explicitly requested farmers not to expand rice cultivation beyond 2023-24 levels, maintaining the policy of controlling production volumes. While this approach aimed to ensure rice farmers’ incomes by maintaining price levels through controlled production, it has also contributed to the shortage by limiting overall production volumes. This rigid system leaves the sector unable to scale up quickly in response to sudden increases in demand or unexpected disruptions.
Despite the 2024 rice shortage, the government has refrained from releasing significant emergency reserves or increasing imports, reflecting its broader rigid policy. Japan’s near 100 per cent rice self-sufficiency rate in 2023 reflects its strong reliance on domestic production, but this rigidity has contributed to the supply crisis by limiting the ability to quickly import or redistribute rice to address consumer needs. Imported rice, when allowed, is typically directed to processing or animal feed rather than for direct consumption, further limiting its role in potentially alleviating a supply crisis.
Although Japan is nearly 100 per cent self-sufficient in rice production, this self-sufficiency is fragile and highly dependent on maintaining stable environmental and market conditions. While rice production has remained relatively stable, extreme weather events have reduced the proportion of high-quality rice, highlighting vulnerabilities in the rice policies. Japan has recently begun researching climate-resilient rice varieties, but these efforts remain limited due to the preferences of Japanese people for traditional strains, which are prized for their taste but less adapted to changing environmental conditions. These preferences have slowed the adoption of higher-yield or heat-resistant varieties, leaving crops more vulnerable to pests and environmental stress. Japonica rice, which accounts for only about 14.6 per cent of global rice production and is primarily produced in Japan and South Korea, has limited global availability. Even if imports were increased, Japan’s 778 per cent rice tariffs would still prevent significant alleviation of shortages. This rigidity in policies and practices highlights the need for adaptive strategies that address evolving climatic and market pressures.
Lessons from Japan’s Food Security Dilemma
Japan’s recent rice shortage highlights the challenges of ensuring food security, which are driven primarily by conservative protectionist policies and practices. The recent prolonged heat waves and surge in tourism have added pressures to an already rigid agricultural framework — emphasizing the need for adaptive and resilient policies. While rice consumption has declined over the years due to demographic shifts and changing diets, the persistent cultural importance of rice in Japan — as a staple food deeply intertwined with Japanese traditions — and its role in the domestic economy and politics highlight the need to reform policies that prioritize rigidity over adaptability. Conservative policies aimed at protecting producers have prioritized stability over flexibility, leaving Japan vulnerable to disruptions like the 2024 shortage. Addressing this tension between production and consumption is essential as Japan navigates evolving climate and market conditions.
For Canada, Japan’s experience offers relevant lessons and opportunities. Canada, like Japan, confronts agricultural challenges linked to global warming, including prolonged droughts and extreme weather events. In 2023, hot and dry growing seasons in Alberta drove down wheat yields by nearly 20 per cent. Similarly, in 2021, widespread drought reduced total wheat production across Canada by 38.5 per cent, with Alberta and Saskatchewan experiencing even sharper declines. These conditions have driven up costs for farmers and impacted crop yields, leading to price increases for staples like pasta and bread — between August 2021 and August 2022, the average price of pasta rose by 25 per cent, while the average price of white bread increased by 14 per cent, just before the next harvest began. Although Canada’s agricultural sector has remained competitive in global markets, these recurring disruptions highlight the importance of forward-looking agricultural policies that are climate-resilient and focused on maintaining a balance between producer protection and consumer access to affordable, high-quality staples.
Canada, as one of the world’s leading agricultural exporters, is well-positioned to meet Japan’s specific market demands, particularly for wheat and soy, commodities that Canada already exports and that are becoming more prominent in Japanese diets. In 2023, Canada accounted for 38.8 per cent of Japan’s wheat imports, making it the second-largest supplier after the U.S., and 10 per cent of its soybean imports, ranking third after the U.S. and China, establishing a solid foundation for further market growth. Expanding this share will require strategic trade negotiations and deeper collaboration with Japan’s agrifood industry to meet its changing needs.
The failure of Japan’s rice policies that led to particularly acute rice shortages in the summer of 2024 highlight the need for adaptation, as extreme weather events, which are expected to become more frequent, will continue to impact harvests and strain the current system. Strengthening Canada-Japan collaboration in agricultural technology and climate adaptation could address shared challenges, foster resilience in both countries, and enhance Canada’s leadership in sustainable agricultural systems across the Indo-Pacific region.
• Edited by Charles Labrecque, Director of Research, Vina Nadjibulla, Vice-President Research & Strategy, and Ted Fraser, Senior Editor, APF Canada
